CRE Investment Forecast for 2023. The market is going to have to adjust starting in the middle of next year,” LaSalvia said. “I have a feeling that we will start to see deal volume pick up a little bit more as prices maybe adjust a little bit and also as investors find creative ways to get deals done.
Market Trends
Current market conditions have highlighted the fact that cap and interest rates are not highly correlated. Most folks believe this is the case, but it is not. Interest rate fluctuations generally predict the direction of cap rates but not the magnitude of those increases. Investment Sales in 2023? The cap rate versus interest rate relationship over the long term shows that the relationship is not highly correlated.
The average income of renters in Chicago isn’t quite enough to allow them to afford an entry-level home. And as long as interest rates stay high and inventory is low, that will likely remain the case.
Realizing a preapproval and rate and term sheet are not set in stone will go a long way in the current lending environment. Lenders are changing underwriting criteria, not making as many or any exceptions to lending guidelines, and lowering loan-to-value midstream in the escrow process.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) announced today that the 2023 multifamily loan purchase caps for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the Enterprises) will be $75 billion for each Enterprise, for a combined total of $150 billion to support the multifamily market. The 2023 caps reflect an anticipated contraction of the multifamily originations market in 2023.
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